Best Director is gonna be close. This one also is going to break tradition.
I think.
Of the “major” awards, this seems to me to be the closest to call at the top end of the nominees.
Regrettably, let’s dispense with the three directors for whom being nominated is going to have to be honor enough.
Alexander Payne and, believe it or not, Martin Scorsese will not get a sniff at this award this year. Payne’s Nebraska was too small both in scope and at the box office. Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street was too polarizing. There simply are members of the Academy who will not vote for it.
I would love to see David O. Russell win. Two years in a row, Russell directed films have scored nominations for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor. I don’t think that’s ever been done before… but I didn’t look it up. I loved American Hustle. It was, by far, my favorite of the movies nominated this year. I loved the comedy of the film. I cared about the characters. I thought it perfectly evoked the late 70s and early 80s and I had a great time watching it. But I don’t think Russell will win.
It comes down to Alfonso Cuarón and Steve McQueen.
Cuarón’s Gravity was a remarkable technical achievement. It was unlike any other movie on-screen this year. With the slimest of scripts and the loosest of characterizations, it can be argued that Gravity succeeds primarily because of the direction of the movie. Cuarón had a vision and it’s hard not to argue that, without that vision, Gravity wouldn’t have been the incredible success it was. The challenge for Cuarón is that the Academy doesn’t usually recognize science fiction movies. Could this be the year that it does? James Camron couldn’t score a win with Avatar. Will Cuarón with Gravity?
Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave is the most “important” of the movies nominated. It’s Oscar bait. It’s a movie that had the “everyone should see it” tag from early on in its release. By all accounts, it is a beautiful look at a difficult subject. Affecting and disturbing, 12 Years a Slave is the kind of movie that the Academy loves to reward. But McQueen is black (this would be a first in the director category) and he’s British (this has to count against him, too).
So, assuming that the Academy feels that both of these films should have recognition, how will the votes go?
My guess, Cuarón will win for director. As mentioned above, Gravity really is a stunning visual achievement and that kind of work should be and likely will be recognized with an Oscar.
ALFONSO CUARON WINS BEST DIRECTOR